Gold Price Fell on Higher USD - icdx.co.id
  • In one week (23/07 – 27/07) the price of ICDX’s Gold moved down 0.66%.
  • The highest volatility for ICDX’s Gold reached 0.90%.

Market Review

Gold prices fell as the result of easing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union after the US and the EU called for a truce against trade war and halted the increases of tariff, one of which was to withhold plans to impose tariffs on imported EU production of cars. US President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker agreed to lower the tariff barriers and non-tariff barriers in trading. This deal between them can avoid a trade war and save millions of jobs. This breakthrough prompted investors to shift their investments from safe-haven assets (gold) to riskier assets, such as stocks and foreign currency markets.

Last week US economic data that was released mostly positive. The positive data can be seen from US’s Existing Home Sales MoM for the month of June was increased by 0.10%, US’s Markit Manufacturing PMI for the month of July was released at 55.5 compare to previous figure 55.4, US’s Durable Goods Orders MoM for the month of June was increased by 1,30%, US’s GDP Growth Rate for the 2nd Quarter of 2018 was at 4.10% and US’s Michigan Consumer Expectations Final for the month of July was increased by 1.16%.

Chart - Gold Fell on Higher USD- icdx.co.id

Price Performance Indicators

Previous Week % Change
GOLDUD $ 1.223,20 -0,66%
GOLDID Rp 17.677.000,00 -0,70%
GOLDGR Rp 573.000 -1,17%
XAUUSD $ 1.223,08 -0,71%
COMEX $ 1.223,00 -0,66%
USD/IDR Rp 14.483 -0,25%

Market View

Super Busy Week on Central Bank Meeting

Several central bank is scheduled to have meeting this week, which are the FOMC, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England. For gold, the FOMC meeting will be its main focus, as stronger U.S dollar had been become the main reason of lower gold price for the past weeks. Although no changes on this week meeting, pay attention on the optimism of the board and other tier-1 economic data, such as the non-farm payroll and the ISM non-manufacturing data, as both data show slower expectation on the figure and have a chance to move the gold price.

Chinese Yuan Depreciation

As a result of U.S-China trade war, the Chinese had not only responded by adjust their tariff to the U.S goods but also any policy measures to support growth. The most seenable measure is the Chinese letting its currency to depreciate. The depreciation against USD had been occurred since May – another factor of USD appreciation against other currency and gold. Pay attention on the Yuan currency movement, as the gold price looks affected by the depreciation for the past months.

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DATA & EVENTS CALENDAR

Date Data/Events Actual Expectation Previous
30/Jul U.S. – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) 29.10 36.50
31/Jul U.S. – PCE Price Index YoY (Jun) N/A 2.30%
31/Jul U.S. – Personal Income MoM (Jun) 0.30% 0.40%
01/Aug U.S. – ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) N/A 76.80
02/Aug U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (28/Jul) 219 K 217 K
03/Aug U.S. – Non-Farm Employment (Jul) 193 K 213 K

Source: ICDX Research




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